2008 Archives http://www.jibblescribbits.com/table/2008-articles/february/ Mon, 22 May 2017 15:25:38 +0000 Joomla! 1.5 - Open Source Content Management en-gb An Outsider http://www.jibblescribbits.com/2008-articles/february/an-outsider.html http://www.jibblescribbits.com/2008-articles/february/an-outsider.html Plan world domination Relax on the slopes.

The relaxation is much needed trust me.

The good news: There will be a guest blogger watching the game, taking notes and will have a recap. It could be done late Sunday night, but since those Eastern Time Zoners are gigantic babies about getting sleep he'll probably wuss out and wait until Monday to post something on the game. (In fairness the game starts at 8pm EST). I don't really know though I'm assuming.

So please welcome a Rangers fan and blogger: The Dark Ranger. TDR and I have tried to trade each others coaches multiple times, but something about a no-blogger trade clause in one of the assistant's contract is holding it up. I have my lawyers looking into it. I have no idea what he's writing, so it'll be interesting to see on Monday. FYI: I'll be doing a write-up for him over at The Dark Ranger about the Isles-Rangers Game Tuesday. I get a classic bitter Rivalry game that should be intense. He gets to See Foppa return against the worst team in the Western Conference. I think I won that deal.

So with that, everyone have fun and I know I will. Treat TDR like you treat me well.]]>
jibblescribbits@gmail.com (Jibblescribbits) February Fri, 29 Feb 2008 15:51:00 +0000
NHL Network just sucks http://www.jibblescribbits.com/2008-articles/february/nhl-network-just-sucks.html http://www.jibblescribbits.com/2008-articles/february/nhl-network-just-sucks.html
Obviously this game was so important, probably the most important game of the night, that it deserved to be on a network that is accessible in only 10M homes in the US> Wait? WHAT?!? That's right die-hard fans around the country who have shelled out $170 for Center Ice in order to follow their team, or just follow games, were unable to see this game unless they are lucky enough to have an unobstructed south-facing access to the southern sky. I, instead, had to listen to the game on the radio and follow the live game-thread over at MileHighHockey.com.

So I got to miss the most important game to date. Awesome. Did the late Bill Wirtz come up with this idea of NHL network? I have no problems with the network, but you have to give at least center ice subscribers access to it right? I know why the cable companies don't want it on the expanded basic tier, but I mean I'm paying for hockey games, shouldn't I be able to watch them?]]>
jibblescribbits@gmail.com (Jibblescribbits) February Thu, 28 Feb 2008 16:12:00 +0000
A proper trade analysis. http://www.jibblescribbits.com/2008-articles/february/a-proper-trade-analysis.html http://www.jibblescribbits.com/2008-articles/february/a-proper-trade-analysis.html
Then the Avs hit town, and were instantly a hit. It was the new hot ticket in town. Then Pierre LaCroix set a tone that they would in fact be contenders, and traded for St. Patrick, and the momentum couldn't be stopped. The Avs became the good guys, and Avs fever hit the city. They were rockstars. There were only two possible ways the Avs could be any more popular: if they got an arch-nemesis and winning a title. That first playoff series with the Red Wings provided the former, and when Joe Sakic lifted Lord Stanley's Cup in front of Peter Forsberg, Adam Foote, Roy and the rest of the gang, they became more than sports heroes in Denver, they surpassed rockstar status they were legends.

I don't want to say that the franchise lacked Star Power, because Stastny, Sakic, Smyth, Hejduk and Hannan are most definitely stars. But in Denver Sakic, Forsberg, and Foote are it. Even if the Avs fail to make the playoffs this season, the buzz has still come back. For a franchise that was dangerously close to falling into medeocrity, buzz is important. And these two players bring that.

As for the actual hockey teams, well I like the moves even more. Everyone asked if Forsberg was worth the risk? little Miss Sunshine himself, Mark Kizsla, even wrote this ridiculous piece in the Denver Post. Umm what risk?
The Avs are at risk of watching the playoffs with noses pressed against the glass, after declaring themselves serious Stanley Cup contenders six months ago.
True before the Forsberg signing
Coach Joel Quenneville is at risk of not having his contract renewed.
True before the Forsberg signing
Goalie Jose Theodore is at risk of being run out of town.
True long before the Forsberg signing
Giguere is at risk of losing the confidence of ownership that could always count on postseason revenue when Pierre Lacroix was running the show.
True before the Forsberg signing

Fancy that, Forsberg didn't create any of that risk in fact a beaten and struggling team has created those risks this season. Signing Forsberg didn't create any risk at all. Yes he could get hurt, and there's a higher probability of that than with other players, but the Avs gave up exactly zero players to get Foppa back in town. Compare that to the king's ransom the Penguins gave up for 20 games plus playoffs of Marion Hossa. THAT's a risk. All the Avs are risking is about $1M. And guess what: it's not my money. All they get: a world class player like Forsberg. He was the best player in the Sharks-Predators series last year, but the Preds lost that series so no one remembers he actually kept them from being embarrassed. So where's the risk in that? In fact, it's down right conservative.

The Avs then took the real risk in going after Adam Foote. Many people have joked the Avs think it's still 2001, and there's enough joke there, but as I pointed too in my quickie trade post: he's still playing some of the best straight D hockey around. Yeah he may have had some down years in Columbus, but more of that has to do with the fact that the Blue Jackets were pretty dismal until this season. I am surprised he was traded from Columbus, because I know the fans and the organization really liked him there. The only reason he's a risk is because he costs a 1st-round pick. That's a lot for any rental, however, I think Foote has the highest chance of re-signing with the Avs than with any other Free-Agent. In fact I'd bet that he's only thinking about the Avs and Blue Jackets in the offseason.

The Avs also got a defender from Florida for a 3rd round pick and the out-of-favor Karlis Skrastins. I have been hard on the guy, but there's no doubt Skrastins played fairly well here, but his play has been slipping, and he wasn't helping anymore. He can help a team like Florida that could use some positionally sound defensemen and I'm glad he went to a team where he should be able to contribute and play. He is a professional and despite our (fans/bloggers and let's not kid my) sometimes harsh words he never took a night off (willingly), and that's tough to do in a sport that plays 82 games a year so I wish him luck in Florida.

Overall François Giguére was able to trade away a spare part player and two (maybe three)
draft picks for three players that help the Avs get to, and hopefully advance in, the playoffs. The West is so tough there's no guarantee's for any team. More importantly Giguére is able to give the Avs the buzz around town that the lockout squelched three years ago and the team has been seeking ever since. Ask a Blackhawks fan how important that is. And he was able to do it without sacrificing the long-term stability of the franchise.

So remember this day Avs fans, it's a glorious one . (oh and they won tonight against the Flames.)]]>
jibblescribbits@gmail.com (Jibblescribbits) February Wed, 27 Feb 2008 05:22:00 +0000
Avs Trades-Quickie http://www.jibblescribbits.com/2008-articles/february/avs-trades-quickie.html http://www.jibblescribbits.com/2008-articles/february/avs-trades-quickie.html
  • World class offensive player (albeit an oft-injured one) {Forsberg}
  • World Class defender, still playing great defense (according to Mirtle) {Foote}
  • A defender who has as many points as any of our other defenders (23-Liles) {23 Salei}
  • AND we get to give away Skrastins (and more importantly his terrible $2.4M contract next season)
  • 2 players that will fill the building

And all we give up in return is (yes giving away Skrastin's is a net positive):
  • 1 First round pick
  • 1 3rd round pick
  • 1 (possible) 4th rounder. I've been in important meetings all day, and have missed specifics
More on this later, but that's a pretty good haul.]]>
jibblescribbits@gmail.com (Jibblescribbits) February Tue, 26 Feb 2008 20:35:00 +0000
Re-Design http://www.jibblescribbits.com/2008-articles/february/re-design.html http://www.jibblescribbits.com/2008-articles/february/re-design.html
I will be adding to the blogroll throughout the day, if I miss anything please let me know. When i converted over to the new format I lost a lot of blogs addresses, so I will be digging them out over the next couple days. I also hope to find some other cool stuff to put in the margins here., so i may miss some while setting them all up again. I will also have more to say about this, but I'm beat from the redesign.]]>
jibblescribbits@gmail.com (Jibblescribbits) February Tue, 26 Feb 2008 07:50:00 +0000
OMG OMG OMG!!!! http://www.jibblescribbits.com/2008-articles/february/omg-omg-omg.html http://www.jibblescribbits.com/2008-articles/february/omg-omg-omg.html FOPPA's BACK

Can he lead the avs to the playoffs despite the bungling of Q? Who knows?]]>
jibblescribbits@gmail.com (Jibblescribbits) February Mon, 25 Feb 2008 21:58:00 +0000
Stunned http://www.jibblescribbits.com/2008-articles/february/stunned.html http://www.jibblescribbits.com/2008-articles/february/stunned.html
It's been well documented, but the Avs have now blown the lead in their last 3 games in which they have had one. They are 1-1-1 in those games.

I really don't know what else to say, you blow a 2-goal lead to the Oilers and you don't deserve to make the playoffs.]]>
jibblescribbits@gmail.com (Jibblescribbits) February Mon, 25 Feb 2008 15:33:00 +0000
Stats, follow up http://www.jibblescribbits.com/2008-articles/february/stats-follow-up.html http://www.jibblescribbits.com/2008-articles/february/stats-follow-up.html
So guess what, I went ahead and looked at every game where the Avs were either ahead or tied in the third period and calculated their GFA (Goals For Average) and GAA (Goals Against Average) (EN goals didn't count in the GFA). I think the results are telling.

So here's how I calculated it. there's a tied or leading part, and just a leading part.
the Tied or leading part:

I counted GF and GA as goals scored when the Avs are tied or leading by 1 or 2 in the third period. Any goals after that didn't count, unless the Avs went back to up by 1 or 2 or tied. The time counted was time counted when the Avs were tied, up 1 or 2. Any goals scored outside of this didn't count in the calculations. If the Avs are down a goal their strategy changes, and the goal of this is to see if the "cling for dear life" strategy is working. If the Avs went up by 3 goals, i figured it's not really a close game and playing defensive isn't really clinging for dear life.

Here's an example: On December Colorado Lost to Columbus 5-4. The Avs entered the period up 3-1. Here's the scoring summary for the third period of that game:
Columbus 7:07, Rick Nash 18 (Sergei Fedorov, Gilbert Brule)
Columbus 9:26, Joakim Lindstrom 1 (power play) (Kris Beech, Curtis Glencross)
Columbus 14:44, Nikolai Zherdev 10 (Curtis Glencross, Jan Hejda)
Colorado 15:25, Scott Hannan 1 (Ryan Smyth, Paul Stastny)
Columbus 15:55, Dan Fritsche 4 (Jason Chimera, Kris Beech)

So the Nash, Zheredev and Lindstrom goals counted as GA, because the Avs were up 2, then 1, then tied. The Hannan goal didn't count as a GF because the Avs were down one, but the Fritsche goal counted because the Avs were tied again. That's 4 GA and 0 GF. Also all the time in that period counted into my calculations except the time between Zheredev's and Hannan's goal. during that Time the Avs were down, and presumably not trying to go in their shell (even though with Q you never know).

Here's another example that doesn't look like I'm making criteria to fit my theory:

On October 7th the Avs and Sharks were tied 2-2 entering the third period. Here's the scoring summary from the third period:
Colorado 0:51, Paul Stastny 4 (Milan Hejduk, Jordan Leopold)
Colorado 2:47, Milan Hejduk 2 (Ryan Smyth, Paul Stastny)
Colorado 7:48, Marek Svatos 1 (Jeff Finger, Tyler Arnason)
Colorado 8:04, Paul Stastny 5 (unassisted)
Colorado 8:06, Ryan Smyth 1 (Paul Stastny)
San Jose 17:53, Ryane Clowe 2 (power play) (Steve Bernier, Matt Carle)

So the first Stastny goal, the Hejduk Goal and the Svatos goal all counted as GF. (since the Avs were tied, up 1 and up 2). Neither the second Stastny goal, or the Smyth goal counted as GF and the Clowe goal didn't count as a GA. The time used in the GAA and GFA for this game was 7 min 48 seconds. (when the Avs then went up by 3 on the Svats goal).

After doing this, here was the results:

Month GF GA Min
Oct 6 6 120.92
2.02 1 2.48 2.98
Nov 3 0 79.37
1.32 0 2.27 0.00
Dec 10 9 179.85
3.00 1 3.00 3.00
Jan 4 3 107.98
1.80 1 1.67 1.67
Feb 5 6 113.32
1.89 2 1.59 3.18

Total 28 24 601.43
10.02 5 2.29 2.39

All in all, this isn't actually too bad. When tied, up by 1 or 2 in the third the Avs score slightly less often than they are scored upon, and have a GAA of 2.39. Not great, but certainly not awful (of course a solid November helped that tremendously)
Now let's look at whan happens, only when the Avs are playing with a small lead in the second or third period:
Month GF GA Min Min/60 ENF GFA GAA
Oct 4 2 39.67 0.66 1 4.54 3.03
Nov 3 0 76.02 1.27 0 2.37 0.00
Dec 7 6 127.20 2.12 1 2.83 2.83
Jan 1 1 10.87 0.18 0 5.52 5.52
Feb 4 4 56.33 0.94 2 2.13 4.26

Total 19 13 310.08 5.17 4 2.90 2.52

Look at that GAA balloon. Especially in Jan and Feb of this season. First notice the Avs only played with a small lead in January for under 11 minutes. WTF!?! Also look at those GAA in Jan and Feb when protecting a lead... 5.52 and 4.26. Compare that to October when they still had a GAA of 3.03, but were scoring at a 4.54 rate. In November they didn't give up a goal in 76 minutes of leading time. I think it's fair to say that going into a defensive shell (at least the defensive shell the Avs employ) actually INCREASES the likelihood you will give up a goal.

The reason behind this is partially because the other team is pressing, but I think it has more to do with the fact that both Theo and Budaj are great when taking shots of over 60ft.

So to recap STOP PLAYING LIKE YOU ARE ON THE PK WHEN YOU HAVE A LATE SMALL LEAD!!! You have a better chance of holding the opponent to no more goals if you forecheck and keep the puck in their zone. I know this is counterintuitive to the men behind the Avs bench, but really it's true.]]>
jibblescribbits@gmail.com (Jibblescribbits) February Thu, 21 Feb 2008 18:16:00 +0000
Stats I'd like to see http://www.jibblescribbits.com/2008-articles/february/stats-id-like-to-see.html http://www.jibblescribbits.com/2008-articles/february/stats-id-like-to-see.html
1) 3rd period GA while holding a 2 or 1 goal lead. I can't imagine the Avs have a very good record here. The way we play the "cling for dear life" after getting a late lead, that nearly never works BTW, I can only assume the Avs are nearly last in the league.

2)Average Continuous Offensive Zone time. This is the Average time a team spends in the offensive zone before the defense clears. It seems to me as if the Avs lack of forechecking, despite having quality forecheckers in Wolski, Brunette, and Smyth, means the Avs only get a few moments in the offensive zone before the defense clears.

3) Icings taken by a team on the PP. Again I'm going to assume the Avs lead the league in this category.

Unfortunately a "Moneyball" type website doesn't exist where people just wqatch hockey and keep obscure, yet extremely valuable, stats yet (or if it does I haven't found it).]]>
jibblescribbits@gmail.com (Jibblescribbits) February Thu, 21 Feb 2008 15:23:00 +0000
BREAKING AVS TRADE NEWS http://www.jibblescribbits.com/2008-articles/february/breaking-avs-trade-news.html http://www.jibblescribbits.com/2008-articles/february/breaking-avs-trade-news.html there is a trade between the Colorado Avalanche and the New York Rangers. (check the comments)

The Colorado Avalanche will receive: Rangers head coach Tom Renney, and Assistant coaches Benoit Allaire, Perry Pearn

The New York Rangers will get: Colorado Avalanche Head coach Joel Quenneville, and Assistant coaches Jaques Cloutier and Tony Granato.

Both the Rangers and Avalanche are struggling to meet lofty preseason expectations, and a recent rash of complete embarrassment by both clubs lead to two concerned fans pulling the trigger in a trade that had been discussed before. Avs blogger Jibblescribbits approached Rangers blogger The Dark Ranger months ago with the deal, but TDR originally wanted the Avs to also take Marek Malik. The Avs countered with asking the Rangers take Karlis Skrastins also. Last night's 6-5 Ranger's debacle against the Canadiens, coupled with the Avalanche's debacle Monday in Detroit ignited the trade talks and the two bloggers were able to quickly come to an agreement.

"I'm sad to leave Colorado, but Now I get to coach in NYC. It's a great opportunity" Said now-Rangers Coach Quenneville. "Currently they are in 6th in the Eastern Conference. I was able to get the Avs up to 5th in the West before crushing their chances. I think I can accomplish the same thing in New York."

"Well I'm excited to be playing under a new staff, but I'm really going to miss Mrs. Quenneville" said Colorado backup goalie Peter Budaj.

Rangers GM Glen Sather had this to say "Well I don't expect any type of miracle. But I talked it over with (Avalanche GM) Fraçois (Giguére) and we are hoping the sudden change of scenery for the coaches will stun them. By the time they figure out how to fuck this up, for both teams, Our talented players will have dug us out of this hole."

The trade must still be approved by the blogger board of governors. Neither Rangers nor Avalanche bloggers are expected to dissent.]]>
jibblescribbits@gmail.com (Jibblescribbits) February Wed, 20 Feb 2008 20:42:00 +0000