2011 Archives http://www.jibblescribbits.com/table/2011-articles/june/ Mon, 22 May 2017 15:33:49 +0000 Joomla! 1.5 - Open Source Content Management en-gb The Die is Cast http://www.jibblescribbits.com/2011-articles/june/the-die-is-cast.html http://www.jibblescribbits.com/2011-articles/june/the-die-is-cast.html
But those weren't the moves that made headlines today. The Avs, who were in the middle of the rebuild, traded a 1st & 2nd, round pick for the young, talented, and slightly injury prone, goaltender Semyon Varlomov. And the trade did more than give the Avs the #1 goaltender they craved. The trade ends phase one of the Avalanche rebuild.

 When Greg Sherman took over in early June of 2009 the Avs roster was coming off a season in which they were a few hundred thousand from the salary cap. The Avs were loaded with aging vets like Scott Hannan, Ryan Smyth Ruslan Salei and and Darcy Tucker. Greg Sherman's 1st order of business was to shed the salary, shed the vets, and get talented, younger and allow himself the flexibility to fill in any holes that drafts picks may not yield. 

By trading away draft picks next year for a goaltender this year Greg Sherman took an advance on the rebuild that he has been carefully cultivating for 3 offseasons. His rebuild has now yielded a #1 Defenseman in Erik Johnson (a former #1 overall), a #1 Center in Duchene, (#3 overall), a #1 Winger in Landeskog, and now a #1 Goalie in Varlamov. The roster is one of the youngest in the league. Also, under contract next season for the Avs are: Paul Stastny, Ryan O'Byrne, Jan Hejda, Cameron Guance, Semyon Varlamov & Jean-Sebastion Giguere.

Now the Avs have talent, they have youth, and they have cap flexibility. He has all the tools in the shed, all the pieces on the board. Michealangelo once said "Every block of stone has a statue inside it and it is the task of the sculptor to discover it" Well Greg Sherman spent 3 offseasons trying to acquire the perfect stone. By trading away his 1st round pick next season, he's guaranteed that this is the best piece of marble he's going to get. It's time for him to sculpt.

So the Avs begin a new phase of the rebuild, and so does Greg Sherman. Every move he makes from here on out, is molding this collection of talent into a Stanley Cup contender.  This means no more making moves to squeeze a few dimes off the payroll. That behavior was ok when the Avs were acquiring assets. But now the Avs are officially getting better, not cost cutting. The Avs now can sign free agents to plug holes they have, and they have holes to fill, in particular at wing, so if a left wing came up as a free agent next season, like Patrick Sharp, the Avs better be making a play for him. It doesn't mean they have to spend recklessly, but there's no more excuse for being cheap. If the Avs continue to hug the cap floor, they have no other excuses. In fact, today makes the Liles trade even worse in retrospect. They could afford him, and pairing him with Hejda, moving O'Byrne and Wilson to the third pair. Salary concerns can't be the number one priority anymore.

 Avs fans reacted strongly, as did casual observers. Everyone assumed the Avs are going to be bad next year, and assume the 1st rounder will be a lottery pick. This year I was ok with the Avs trading the #11 pick + a replaceable asset for Bernier or Schneider. The Avs traded next years #1 for an equivalent replacement.  Sherman has all acquired all the parts, it's time to build this Cup Machine.
]]>
jibblescribbits@gmail.com (Jibblescribbits) June Sat, 02 Jul 2011 02:15:28 +0000
Avs Man Meat Acquisitions '11 http://www.jibblescribbits.com/2011-articles/june/avs-man-meat-acquisitions-11.html http://www.jibblescribbits.com/2011-articles/june/avs-man-meat-acquisitions-11.html
2010


2009

2008

2007

In 07 The Avs followed my advice and the Avs made the playoffs. In '08, they didn't and the Avs finished with the 3rd worst record in the league. In '09, Avs followed my advice again: & Playoffs. Last season, Sherm thought he was too good for me, and he didn't follow my advice. Then the Avs finish with the second worst record. So, I think maybe he's finally learned his lesson.

So let'slay it out here (As I kind of did in this post here), but here's a re-cap. With the signing of Jones ($2.5M) and O'Byrne ($1.8M) the Avs now have a cap hit of $33.8M and have to spend at least $15.5M in order to get to the salary floor. Assume Landeskog makes the roster ($3.6M) and the rest of the RFAs receive fair offers (Cumiskey- $750k, Wilson - $1M, Porter - $750k, Galiardi - $1.5M) that brings the Avs Cap hit to 41.4, we'll add Elliott ($843k) and the Avs have to spend ~$6.1M to reach just the floor. And the way they dry humped it last season, we'll go ahead and assume they won't go over it too much.

The Avs also have the following under contract:

Landeskog - Stastny - Jones
Mueller - Duchene - Hejduk
McClemet - O'Reilly - Winnik
Lindstrom - Galiardi - McLeod

Yip

Johnson - Quincey
O'Byrne - Wilson
Guance - Elliott

Hunwick
Cumiskey


??????
??????


This leaves the Avs with $6.1M cap room, 3 roster spots, and in need of 2 goalies. So we'll start with them:

]]>
jibblescribbits@gmail.com (Jibblescribbits) June Fri, 01 Jul 2011 02:54:08 +0000
The Avs draft day analysis http://www.jibblescribbits.com/2011-articles/june/the-avs-draft-day-analysis.html http://www.jibblescribbits.com/2011-articles/june/the-avs-draft-day-analysis.html

Trade: JM-Liles to Toronto for a 2012 2nd round pick (via Boston).

This deal sucks. Like really bad. Troy Brouwer was traded on the same day for a 1st round pick. Alex Goligowski landed James Neal and Matt Niskanen at the trade deadline. Thomas Kaberle landed a late 1st, late 2nd, and a mid range prospect. JM-Liles was apparently worth the worst piece of that Kaberle deal. Kaberle's point totals the last 3 seasons: 27, 42, 42. Liles: 27, 25, 40. So basically renting Kaberle for 3 months was worth a 1st rounder and a prospect more than a full season of J-M Liles.

There is upside to this deal, however. Currently, the Avs have $29.5M tied up in 14 players (this includes Hunwick's $1.55M deal, which we'll get to below). This means that the Avs have to spend at least $18.8M on 11 players. If the Avs sign the rest of their their RFAs (Estimated salary in brackets); Galiardi ($1.25M), Jones ($2.25M), Porter($750k), Dupuis ($550k) on Offense, O'Byrne ($1.25M), Cumiskey ($750k), Wilson ($750k) & B. Elliott ($1M) That leaves the Avs a healthy $10.25M they have to spend on 3 players. (Note: they could spend another $16M on top of that, but...). The $4.2M cap hit (and $4.5M salary) that Liles freed up can be better utilized in players like Ian White, James Wisniewski, Thomas Vokoun, Eric Cole, Antti Miettinen  or Jussi Jokinen. In fact $10.25M is probably enough to sign 3 of those players. If the savings on Liles contract (which was inflated) then that's a positive for the Avs.

(Note: I forgot to add Landeskog's hit into this, last year Seguin had $3.55M and Hedman's the year before is $3.5, so let's call Landeskog $3.6 and make it 2 players to sign for $6.6M)

But taking the salary ramifications into account, the Avs still got hosed. A (likely) late 2nd round pick next season will probably need 2-3 years in the minors to develop. If he even deveops into an NHL player, he won't even be in a Unipron until probably 2015-16. By that point I hope the Avs have stopped rebuilding, and started competing. Toronto had 3 of the top 40 picks in this seasons draft. I don't see why the Avs couldn't have gotten one of those (maybe the #39 pick) this season in exchange for a full season of Liles.

Avs draft LW-Gabriel Landeskog at #2 and D-Duncan Siemens at #11.

]]>
jibblescribbits@gmail.com (Jibblescribbits) June Sat, 25 Jun 2011 14:25:14 +0000
Jibblescribbits Mock Draft! http://www.jibblescribbits.com/2011-articles/june/jibblescribbits-mock-draft.html http://www.jibblescribbits.com/2011-articles/june/jibblescribbits-mock-draft.html
#1 Edmonton Oilers - It’s rumored that Florida wants to swap picks with Edmonton and take Ryan Nugent-Hopkins. Upon hearing that he potentially can spend his winters in either Edmonton or Miami, RNH immediately called Danny Heatley to get career advice. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins

#2 Colorado Avalanche - After RNH there’s 4 prospects that could possibly taken here, and no consensus to the right decision, so The Avs have maybe the most difficult position in the draft other than the prospect who’s eventually taken by Winnipeg. Jonathan Huberdeau

#3 Florida Panthers - With the top prospects all coming from above the 45th parallel,  Florida will have to help whomever they draft deal with the special off-ice peculiarities of playing in a southern hockey market, like “Talking to girls wearing less than 3 layers of clothes” and “more than 4 hours of daylight”  Gabriel Landeskog

#4 New Jersey - Whoever’s drafted here will likely go to the AHL so they can take the necessary time learn the Devils trap system, and also take some finance courses so they can budget for living in New York City on only an NHL rookie’s salary next season. Adam Larsson

#5 New York Islanders - There are 5 consensus top picks this season, and one will get the opportunity to develop in an organization that, despite it’s recent setbacks, will likely be back in the playoffs soon, all while living within a stone’s throw of glorious New York City. The other will fall to #5 and have to play for the Isles, but NYC is still nice, so there’s that. Sean Couturier

#6 Ottawa Senators - It is every hockey players dream to be given the opportunity to compete for a championship. Being drafted by the Ottawa Senators will give this lucky draftee that opportunity one day, unless the Sens decide to call him up from Binghamton in his first season.  Dougie Hamilton

#7 Winnipeg (TBD) - Things get awkward when a reporter asks the draft pick if he ever idolized Teemu Selanne or Keith Tkachuk and the draft pick replies “Yeah the Ducks and Blues were teams I really enjoyed watching growing up” Mika Zibanejad

#8 Columbus Blue Jackets Philadelphia Flyers- Philadelphia is reportedly interested in taking Ryan Strome here, despite questions about his wiry frame. Philly thinks he’ll easily add muscle after carrying Ilya Bryzgolov’s suitcases full of gold doubloons all season. Ryan Strome

#9 Boston Bruins -  Despite winning the cup, the Bruins will select in the top ten two years in a row, selecting Tyler Seguin last season with the #2 overall pick. Seguin will be able to  provide a ton of advice on how to have one good game all season and still get your name on the Stanley Cup. Mark McNeil

#10 Minnesota Wild - Minnesota places a high value on 1st rounders that fall towards the end of the top ten, which is why they do everything they can to ensure they are drafting there every year. Sven Bartschi

#11 Colorado Avalanche- After already selecting in the top 5, the Avs may be looking to trade for something that’s more likely to help out next season: possibly a box of duct tape to hold their defensemen together next season. Rocco Grimaldi

#12 Carolina Hurricanes - This rookie will have the opportunity to play alongside Eric Staal, Cam Ward and Jeff Skinner.... and that’s about it since that’s all the players Carolina has under contract next season Duncan Siemens

#13 Calgary Flames - Being drafted by the Flames gives every top prospect the opportunity to develop into a potential breakout NHL player in the Flames system, then force their way to the franchise they really want to play for because the Flames prefer horrible veterans. Mark Scheifle

#14 Dallas Stars - The Stars are high on prospect Tomas Jurco mainly because the unpaid intern who makes up their scouting department until the new ownership gets here was a huge Marty Turco fan growing up and the names are kinda similar.  Tomas Jurco]]>
jibblescribbits@gmail.com (Jibblescribbits) June Fri, 24 Jun 2011 17:41:36 +0000
Trading for a goalie: dumb, dumb, dumb http://www.jibblescribbits.com/2011-articles/june/trading-for-a-goalie-dumb-dumb-dumb.html http://www.jibblescribbits.com/2011-articles/june/trading-for-a-goalie-dumb-dumb-dumb.html
Read my lips: This is a dumb idea.

In fact, trading Stastny for any goalie (or any goalie that a team would be willing to trade away) would be a dumb idea.

There are some fans who this appeals to, and I can understand the appeal. From casual Avs fans’ perspective or, more sinisterly, someone who occasionally checks the teams scores in the paper, and has a bewildering grudge against certain players that apparently aren’t flashy enough for him so they tell anyone unfortunate enough to listen to him, or her, why that player isn’t a good fit without any evidence to really back it up, trading for a great goalie makes sense, and here’s why.

‘95-04 Roy Era:: Avs Great
‘04-06 Aebischer/Theo Era:: Avs deteriorate
‘06-09 Theo/Budaj/Raycroft era: Avs suck
‘09-10 Good Anderson: Avs good
‘10-11 Bad Andy/Budaj/Elliott: Avs suck

When looking at this, it’s easy to come to the conclusion that a team is only as good as it’s goaltender. It’s also the wrong conclusion, because it omits scores of other data that provide a ton more nuance and reason to the simplistic narrative.

]]>
jibblescribbits@gmail.com (Jibblescribbits) June Wed, 22 Jun 2011 02:58:03 +0000
And the winner is... http://www.jibblescribbits.com/2011-articles/june/and-the-winner-is.html http://www.jibblescribbits.com/2011-articles/june/and-the-winner-is.html gstpulldn

Congrats to gstpulldn on winning the Jibblescribbits hockey pool, and saving me from massive embarrassment and mockery from my wife, who would have been completely insufferable had she won.

So, e-mail me {jibblescribbits[at]gmail.com} to get yourself a post on my site. I wish I had a better prize than that, but I really don't.

As for the other results here's a list of the top 18 from my pool. why did I stop at 18 and not list the full 20? No reason. No reason, whatsoever.


1. gstpulldn 168.00
-
2. ErikBlevins 164.00
3. JibbleWife 161.00
4. sh*t sandwich 161.00
5. Shame Spear...of Hurt 160.00
6. Geoff 156.00
7. fetch 154.00
8. Ev_MHH 152.00
9. Megalodon 146.00
10. brabin 144.00
11. The Wiggin 144.00
12. ab71 142.00
13. Holy the Goalie 140.00
14. TheNewGuy 133.00
15. anyonebutdetroit 131.00
16. Mean Sedin 127.00
17. Austin S. 120.00
18. t_san 118.00

]]>
jibblescribbits@gmail.com (Jibblescribbits) June Tue, 21 Jun 2011 14:23:58 +0000
Everything but the War of Words http://www.jibblescribbits.com/2011-articles/june/two-unlikable-teams.html http://www.jibblescribbits.com/2011-articles/june/two-unlikable-teams.html
The hockey has been great. Two great games, which had people thinking of the Brodeur-Roy showdown in '01. And not only has the hockey been great, but we've also been treated to some good ol-fashioned nastiness and animosity. A surreal biting incident, taunting, punches to the back of the heads of players. Really this series has had it all so far.

But you know where this series lack... the trash talk (at least the trash talk through the media). Here's a sampling of the quotes that qualify for trash talk these days:

No. We know the type of team they are over there."

"I'm sure their coach is going to take a look at what they did. He said he didn't like it when our guys did it"

"The NHL ruled on something and they decided to make a mockery of it. It's totally up to them. If that's their way of handling things, so be it. We can't waste our time on that sort of stuff."

And I can't even find Alan Vingneult's undoubtedly bland boring whiny quotes.

Boston, Vancouver, I'd like either of you a lot more if you stopped the fucking charade and embraced wearing the black hat. Here's the incidents that I can think of for both these teams this season:

- One team's superstars fall over whenever there's a slight breeze.

- The other team's captain broke a guys neck by tossing him into the stanchion.

- Both teams had players suspended for headshots this season. (BOS: Paille - 4 Games, Marchand - 2 games VAN: Torres - 4 games)

- Both teams won important games in which their player who scored a game winning goal they should have been suspended (Burrows, Horton)

- For God's sake, both teams have had altercations with Fans this season! (Rypen, Horton).

So here's my message to both teams:

Quit trying to take the moral high ground, you pansies. Neither of you have any leg to stand on. In fact, if you had any chutzpah at all you'd embrace the villain role you were born to play. In fact I'd like you a hell of a lot more if one of you would just pull up your bootstraps and put on the Black Hat. In fact take those bootstraps and club the other team with it, laughing maniacally all the way.

In my god damned day when you were taunted by a win-nothing punk like Jeremy Roenick, or Max Lapierre, did you pansy up and say "Oh, I do declare. Those brutes and their awful taunting. It's just plain ungentlemanly. It just reeks of poor class. Those uncouth loudmouth Gallinippers!" No you didn't take the moral high ground. You fought the war in the trenches, WHERE IT BELONGS. You put on your big boy pants and said "Hey you, fuckface. I have 2 Stanley Cup Rings in my ears and your taunts mean nothing to me, you yellow-bellied hornswoggling swine. If you so much as think about trying to score on me again, I will shove this waffleboard so far down your throat that that Cup ring I was just talking about will be plugging your intestines"

Now, quit arguing like a couple of prancing politicians about which one of you is marginally less slimy, and channel your inner Chris Pronger. You're hockey players, damnit. Save this gentlemanly crap for baseball. 

]]>
jibblescribbits@gmail.com (Jibblescribbits) June Tue, 07 Jun 2011 04:28:21 +0000